One Strategy to Rule them All: How to Rule Erenland?

[Bleak Knight]

(Disclaimer: This is based on my limited knowledge of irregular warfare, insurgency, counterinsurgency and such. I have attempted to make it fit into the world of Midnight. The validity of such an experiment is highly debatable!)

After 100 years of occupation, there should be a good reason why Erenland still resists the rule of Izrador and the Night Kings. The most plausible reason seems to be the inconsistency of the dark forces’ strategy. Many factions favoring different approaches results in a lack of concentrated efforts. Aside from destroying the Fey, one of the Shadow’s major efforts should be defining how to win the “peace” in human lands.

That said, this text outlines three possible approaches on how to control the resources of Erenland.

Supplant:

Orcs tribes move south and take over the fertile lands, taking over Erenlander cities or establishing new settlements across the land. Humans are subjected to genocide: killed, kept as slaves, or driven into the wilderness to slowly disappear. The resistance becomes an almost irrelevant threat, reduced to watching over bands of scattered refugees.

This is an approach favored by many kurasatch udareen of the minor tribes. They have long been fighting over scraps in the north, and are willing to risk the journey to the south. Some major tribes also support this notion, either because they wish to establish their own holdings in the south, or because they believe they can usurp the land left behind by minor clans.

The strategy is opposed by a large element of the Order of Shadow, who rightly fears for the future of the human race – and through it, their priesthood – if orcs are allowed to exterminate humankind. It is also opposed by some of the largest of the great tribes. These tribes wish to keep the other tribes close, where they can be controlled. Moving entire tribes south of the Sea of Pelluria would also be a major operation, easily demanding the majority of the Shadow’s logistics. This would in turn require a large reduction of activity on the front lines, which is deemed unacceptable by many.

Subjugate:

Orc legions, mercenaries and the military arm of the Order of Shadow focus on hunting down the resistance in precise operations. They maintain large garrisons and temples in key human settlements, from which they operate. From these bases they launch patrols, hunts for magic, and missions intended to kill or capture insurgents in the field. Villages are left mostly to themselves, as long as they meet their quotas and no suspicious activity occurs.

This is a view favored by many military commanders, both orc and legate. The strategy conserves resources that are better spent on the front lines, and requires less management of the population. Punitive missions are easy and straightforward, and the missions undertaken by agents of the shadow offer an opportunity for glory away from the front lines. It also allows the Shadow to keep its forces safe and easily supplied when they are not conducting operations.

Critics speculate insurgents are able to move more freely than believed, and point to the general lack of control and oversight. Members of the Order of Shadow also claim it makes the task of converting humankind to the dark faith difficult because such a large segment of the population is left without constant exposure to Izrador’s might.

Convert:

Erenland will be controlled by spreading the faith across the human lands and making mankind accept there is no alternative to Izrador. This strategy also forwards the notion that humankind is essential to Izrador’s success. They provide supplies, manpower and infrastructure necessary for the Shadow’s armies to function on the front lines. In order to successfully employ this strategy, armed garrisons and manned shrines to Izrador should be established across Erenland. They do not have to be large, but ever-present and always in control.

This is an approach favored by a majority of the Devout and other legates with a strong conviction. They believe that the Order of Shadow must walk a line between punishing and rewarding the human population of Erenland, establishing itself as the sole governing authority of man. Once this relationship is established, victory against the Fey will be certain.

The approach is resisted by many traitor princes and governors who loathe the notion of yielding even more authority to the legates. It is also an approach resisted by almost the entire orc race, which has no time to coddle humans into cooperation, and also considers them to be a subservient species. Military leaders disfavor the approach since it draws resources and manpower away from the front lines, and also point to the potential vulnerability of minor garrisons in human settlements.

So, which approach is the best option for Izrador and his minions? Is there another one?

Discuss!

[Doomed Hero]

If any of the three approaches were to be fully concentrated on, victory would be all but assured. Supplanting would be fastest. Conversion would be the most complete over all victory. Subjugation would need the least amount of resources. The trick is that they are each mutually exclusive and you'd have to wipe out the supporters of the other methods in order to really make any one of them work.

The thing is, Izrador has hung his servants in a precarious position. As long as the Dwarves and Elves hold out, the humans are absolutely necessary for the production of supplies for the war effort, and as long as the majority of the Legates are wrapped up in controlling the human populous, the Elves and Dwarves will never be defeated. The orc's numbers don't matter in the kinds of wars being fought, so the situation is effectively a stalemate.

The important thing to note here is that the current Stalemate really is working in Izrador's favor. Any of the three methods would work in the short term, but fail over the long term. Let's break it down-

Supplant: Izrador tells the Mother-Wives to unleash the horde and send them south. He withholds spells from the Order. Humanity is all but wiped out in three months.
The tide of Orcs push to the west extending the Burning Line the entire length of the forest. Environmental damage is unimaginable. Hundreds of millions of acres of burning forest spew smoke into the air. The sky turns grey. The stars become only a memory across most of the continent. Plants wither and die. The entire ecosystem collapses. The Elves fall inside a year.
The Orcs roll east and plug every hole and passage in the Kaladruns with bodies. The Dwarves slowly die off over the next five years of starvation and disease. The war is won. The continent is a wasteland.
The demand to continue to feed the mirrors keeps the orcs at each other's throats. They can't force their slaves to breed fast enough to maintain a surplus of sacrifices so they start raiding rival tribes. The orc population wanes as the slave population goes entirely into the orcish cookpots. Gnomes and Halflings are all but extinct. The orcs begin raiding rival tribes for food and for sacrifices. They progress into full-blown civil war across many fronts and wipe each other out.
This all happens within 10 years. Izrador loses because he won.

Subjugate: Izrador begins having the Order concentrate on Divinations. Hunter-killer squads become all but impossible for the resistance to escape or avoid. Permanent Zones of Truth begin being secretly erected in major cities. The question "Do you serve Izrador as your one and only God?" becomes the ultimate test of loyalty as people are brought into the temples, asked that question, and then either released or imprisoned to be sacrificed. When the resistance gets wind of this there is a mass exodus into rural areas. Farming communities become regulated by the Order and guarded by the military. All non-controlled villages are burned to the ground and the fields salted. The Eren becomes entirely patrolled and controlled. Gnomes are put to the Question in ports, and killed if they fail. Most are killed. With nowhere else to go the surviving resistance members escape into Erethor or into the Sea of Peluria. With the human populous fully subservient the  war effort goes predictably. The elves and dwarves are crushed. Everything goes well until the orcs (led by someone like Grial, most likely) realize that the war is over and now the humans don't want or need them anymore. War inevitably begins. In spite of the Night Kings' collective efforts, the Orcs win, at which point things devolve as per Supplanting.

Convert: The Order begins a major recruiting push, slowly swelling their ranks. It works until the Orcs realize what is happening. Internal strife breaks to war, which the Order eventually wins when a few of the most devout tribes break to fight along side the Soldier Legates against their kin. The war destroys nearly every city in Erenland. The Elves and Dwarves bide their time and nurse their wounds. Coordinated strike teams take out the Black Mirrors left in Erenland. With no connection to Izrador the Order is left with the choice of losing their power or becoming servants of the Orcs in places like Gasterfang. The Order of Shadow is all but destroyed. The elves have had the time to perfect their plague. Once the Order falls, the Orcs die horribly. Everyone else lives happily ever after in an alliance of races united against the Dark God. (at least for a while, until Izrador rises again a few hundred or thousand years later)

When you follow the likely scenarios and realize they all end in Izrador eventually losing because of internal strife, you realize that the current precarious balance must be exactly the way he wants it. It must be part of the plan.

The next question becomes "why? What's the plan?"

It is, of course, escape. The hows are pretty ambiguous, but we all seem to agree it has something to do with the collection/corruption/destruction of the world's magic (whatever you think Black Mirrors do).

Biding time and slowly tightening the noose seems to be the real plan. It's not really about winning and controlling the world, or even about destroying it. If Izrador wanted those things they would be easy. I think he's using the Resistance as a means to an end. They breed and support Channelers. They find lost nexuses. They give the fragile alliance of psychopathic followers He's created a reason to work together. The Resistance is the glue that holds his entire plan together.

[Gabboge]

In the overall I never thought Izzy wanted to "win" the war per say. The war is like an engine, churning out hate and evil on both sides. The more the elves try to fight the more sacrifices they give the dark god. They best thing the elves and dwarves could do to make sure shadow didn't win would be to kill themselves so the mirrors would be starved and to assure that Izrador never breaks free.

Less mechanically, he is the god of evil and so in a way the inner strife probably only strengthens him. He works in the evil of everything to manipulate things. He probably gets better performance out of his legates because they are not just motivated by serving him but by the plot they have worked up to screw over the next guy.

A long outstretched war is good for the shadow. They get to be evil bastards with a common enemy and have a steady stream of high levels captures to sacrifice. The war being over (Even in the best of scenarios) would be the worst thing for the dark god.

[DaveTheMagicWeasel]

I love the idea of Izrador deliberately keeping his minions distrustful of one another and working at cross purposes.  Divide and Rule makes perfect sense.

Supplant

As well as the Order of Shadow being cool on the idea, I think perhaps another reason it's not been pursued too rigorously is that many of the Kursatch Udareen (or however you spell that!) would probably be against it.  The further away from them the orcs go the weaker their own grip - the Orc mafia in the south, the growth of the White Mother Cult, even the supplanting of tribal authority by military authority (e.g. Grial), all of them are a potential threat to the pre-eminent position of the Kursatch Udareen.  Since victory probably looks inevitable to them at this point, why take that risk?  Sure, it'll cost massively more in orc blood for the ultimate victory, but there's plenty more where that came from - if anything the meatgrinders in Kaladruns & Erethor are keeping a lid on a potentially devastating overpopulation problem.

Subjugate

In my vision of Midnight, this is probably the dominant strategy being pursued.  Though perhaps in part by accident more so than anyone having sat down and formulated it as strategy.

Doomed Hero - the Zone of Truth checkpoints idea is very cool, gonna have to nick that one.

Convert

This would, probably, be the best strategy for winning long-term.  But, the sheer scale of Eredane (even with the errata to the scale on the map) makes it almost impossible.  The freedom insurgents can find in the wilderness is unavoidable in such a large land, especially since so many smaller settlements have been depopulated by the ravages of orcs/fell/etc, travel is so dangerous and roads, etc have been left to ruin over large areas.

I think the Voices of Shadow are currently working towards this goal, but unless there's a truly huge recruitment drive on their part they can't hope to get the kind of coverage necessary to make it work any time soon so tend to be found in the more densely populated urban areas.

And that brings up another point - Izrador is weakened, and presumably trying to save up his power ready for a fresh assault on the veil/heavens.  So, how many Legates can he actually provide with power?  How much of a bearing does that have on his strategy?  Perhaps he'd like to pursue one or other strategy more fully but is at his limit?



As a related point to all this, has anyone read the Mistborn series?  Lots of parallels there with Midnight imo:

SPOILER ALERT

(click to show/hide)

One specific example, not revealed till the later books, is the Final Empire's use of Soothers (magic users, essentialy enchantment specialists) in the capital, scattered throughout the city projecting a constant background hum of magic suppressing rebellious thoughts.  Hence, the population of the city are much more docile than their rural counterparts, no matter how brutal their oppression.

Applied to Midnight: Cityfolkmay see some Voices of Shadow preaching on street corners (preaching which imo will be interweaved with a steady flow of charm/enthrall/suggestion/etc so that those who hear them walk away loving Izrador), but how many other Voices of Shadow are there wandering the streets in civilian garb?  How many times per day is the average city dweller charmed/enthralled/suggested without even realising it's happening?

I can't recall a single mention of riots or civil disorder in any Midnight book - fear alone surely isn't the only thing maintaining social peace...

[Sholano]

And that brings up another point - Izrador is weakened, and presumably trying to save up his power ready for a fresh assault on the veil/heavens.  So, how many Legates can he actually provide with power?  How much of a bearing does that have on his strategy?  Perhaps he'd like to pursue one or other strategy more fully but is at his limit?

I really like this discussion, and I'm probably gonna chime in with my own take on all this sometime soon. In the meantime, though, this jumped out at me, because it raises the following question.

Where does a God get their power? Classic fantasy teaches us that it derives, at least partly, from the faith of their followers. If this is true, then each Legate actually provides the fuel for their own abilities, simply through their faith in their God. In fact, it's a reasonable method for Izrador to determine which legates receive the most powerful miracles - they just get a feedback of their own contribution to His power.

And, of course, seeing these miracles can't help but engender faith in Him and His power, regardless of how the viewer may feel about that power. And since there are no other Gods in Aryth for anyone's faith to filter to, it only makes sense that all the contributors are feeding power directly to Izrador, unwilling or no. When there are other Gods around, it is possible that a God would have to be careful with who they bestow their strength unto, in case of accidentally spurring faith in other deities; but when You're the only game in town? Do whatever, it's not like they can stop believing in You.

Further, if this is the case, then who knows? Izrador may already be capable of shattering the Veil and striding the multiverse again, but instead, is using Aryth as an incubator for his power, so that when he does break free, no God or coalition of Gods will be able to shut hum away again.

[Gabboge]

Perhaps he gets magic and power from the sacrifices but he gains strength from acts of evil. I like to think that he is fighting the war for the sake of fighting a war and not just as a power grab. War brings out the worst evil in everyone, even the best of people and Izzy is feeding off that hate and evil.

BTW, I don't think I have ever read anything on how he intends to put himself back together in order to fight the other god once he has enough power to break free. Is that left up to us to decide? If so then in my mind he really has two objectives, gather magic (sacrifices) and gather up strength to heal (Spread evil)

Both of which are better served by a prolonged stalemate war.

[DaveTheMagicWeasel]

Where does a God get their power? Classic fantasy teaches us that it derives, at least partly, from the faith of their followers. If this is true, then each Legate actually provides the fuel for their own abilities, simply through their faith in their God. In fact, it's a reasonable method for Izrador to determine which legates receive the most powerful miracles - they just get a feedback of their own contribution to His power.

From his followers is one option.

But, personally I opt for the idea that all that arcane power being put into the mirrors is actually being recycled into divine energy - some sent back to the Legates/Evil Outsiders, the rest kept by Izrador for himself.  With the mortal plane cut off from the divine realm(s) Izrador was left so crippled that his only option was to turn the entire continent of Eredane into a giant life support machine.

[Doomed Hero]

Izrador was left so crippled that his only option was to turn the entire continent of Eredane into a giant life support machine.

Entire planet. Erdane is just the part we get to see.

[Sholano]

From his followers is one option.

But, personally I opt for the idea that all that arcane power being put into the mirrors is actually being recycled into divine energy - some sent back to the Legates/Evil Outsiders, the rest kept by Izrador for himself.  With the mortal plane cut off from the divine realm(s) Izrador was left so crippled that his only option was to turn the entire continent of Eredane into a giant life support machine.

Me, I'm inclined to go with both. Maybe he can still gather and use power in the same way as before the fall (i.e. through worshippers), but only if his crippled body is somehow boosted by the arcane energy coming in from the mirrors. Or maybe all his divine strength is being used to slowly heal himself, and so he needs to supplement it with the mirrors. Or something along those lines. Whatever way, I like the idea of both.

[DaveTheMagicWeasel]

Entire planet. Erdane is just the part we get to see.

Don't think there's any reason to believe Izrador's grip extends beyond Eredane tho.

Which actually gives me a thought - victory for Izrador doesn't have to be the end, could just be the prerequisite for an invasion of Pelluria.  In which case Convert is probably necessary so that there's someone to build the fleet to take the orc legions across.

[Doomed Hero]

Don't think there's any reason to believe Izrador's grip extends beyond Eredane tho.

By the same logic, there's no reason to believe it doesn't.

Guess it just varies by game.

[Gabboge]

I have to say I find it kinda funny that this conversation has led to "does god exist (In a particular location in the game)" and some say "well you can't prove he doesn't" and others say "Well you can't prove he does" and in the in it's all up to personal opinion on weather he does or does not exist.... outside of Eridane.

[Bleak Knight]

While I can see how in some games - depending on your take on Izrador - having him play his own forces against each other is a valid strategy, I wonder how he would justify these actions to his followers. OK, so many will probably serve him unquestioningly out of fear or for personal power, but at some point orcs, legates or someone else is going to chafe at being used in this way. I guess this could be a source of renegade legates, White Mother orcs and such?

In my own game, Izrador (if he even truly exists) is a much more distant and arcane entity than Morgoth or Sauron in LotR. These strategies were developed as tools favored by some of his followers, as a means to bring about what they believe is the will of their god. It is a point of contention between factions, and part of the game played between Izrador's minions. The reason one of the strategies is not favored exclusively is because they all have powerful patrons.

Also, DH: While your playthroughs of the strategies are possible outcomes, they do not have to play out that way. I can think of alternatives in which  (1) supplanting results in orc civil war before the Fey are extinct, like Dave points out; (2) farming communities are not subjugated or destroyed, due to lack of manpower/resources and the orcs do not win because the order has the backing of the kingdom; (3) the order manages to subjugate/defeat the mother-wives and orc tribes south of the Pellurian. Just to name some possibilities.

As for where does a god gain its power? I stick to a notion that Izrador feeds of Death, Destruction, Evil, Magic and War. Meaning all these events benefit him in the long run. In my own game, this has raised the question of where life, creation, good, peace and so on end up. The answer so far, is Aradar.

EDIT: For +1 sense-making.

[Doomed Hero]

When it comes to just flat out winning the war, I'm looking at the numbers presented int he source material. The orcs outnumber every other race combined by apx 10 to 1. (No, I don't know how this makes sense, or where their food comes from, or any of the other logistical questions that you start to ask when you try to process those kinds of numbers, I'm just going off of the numbers themselves).

In a fight against the orcs, the orc win. If the orcs fight each other, everyone else loses. The orcs don't farm. They don't really produce anything. They just kill things and eat them, and there are millions of them.

Most of them are just up in the north, breeding and fighting each other, for whatever reason, but if that ever changed the world would be completely screwed.

As for the internal dissenters you mentioned, that's in the canon. Grial is having that exact crisis of consciousness. He's realized his entire race is being used and he's trying to figure out what to do about it. I figure he's just that first orc who came to that realization that was in any kind of position to do anything constructive with it. Most that realize it die in various ways. The lucky ones might join the white mother, but that's pretty rare.

[Sunderman]

As for where does a god gain its power? I stick to a notion that Izrador feeds of Death, Destruction, Evil, Magic and War. Meaning all these events benefit him in the long run. In my own game, this has raised the question of where life, creation, good, peace and so on end up. The answer so far, is Aradar.
/quote]

I agree with this assessment. Consider that in this game system gods have domains. Izrador is no different. There is nothing to indicate that he has assumed the domains of "good," "healing," etc. Further, this argument would give strength to the premise that Izrador would much rather the war go on. In fact, he would probably not desire to tear the veil until such a time as he felt significantly powerful to continue the conflict that lead to the sundering in the first place. To me another key point is the fact that in several places in canonical writings Izrador is understood NOT to be omnipotant. Were he to cover all domains one could believe that he should be omnipotant. Needless to say, an omnipotant diety would know all the answers and understand what was needed to assend to the heavens again and would work to that end both good and bad - and he seems to be focused on elimination of "good".